Midnight on the firing line (my thoughts on North Korea)

It seems like I'm not exactly the only guy out there sweating out of fear.

Turns out, that the Northern Koreans have finally managed to get their long-range Taepodong-2 missiles working. These things could, potentially, reach the western coast of the US and annihilate millions of people with their nuclear warheads. The missile test they conducted today wasn't exactly a success, since one of the missiles apparently malfunctioned somehow and exploded in mid-air.

Many people probably gloat over the DPRK failure, but I bet that some of them also fail to see the bigger picture: North Korea now has the capability to produce, and probably has produced, missiles intended to hit targets located even farther away than before. These things could, in theory, hit targets in the US soil now - not to mention Japan and Southern-Korea. So the way I see it, is that alot of nations are going to be falling under the DPRK's nuclear reach even more than before , and potentially Kim Jong Il could use these weapons if pushed against the wall.

I think that anybody even mad enough to threaten others with nuclear weapons should be considered absolutely and 100 % "for real". These are the sorts of doomsday weapons, that could indeed trigger a worldwide holocaust if used carelessly. So, a person like Kim Jong Il and his Stalinist military junta, should be considered extremely dangerous at this time, and their notifications of meaning business should be answered with similar responses. Nuclear blackmail, in essence, is one of the most ultimate ways to bind your enemy - but it also seems to be the ultimate way to get yourself eliminated in the process as well.

So then, what to do ? A large-scale military campaign like the Korean War of the 50's is completely out of the question: the United States, currently involved in the Middle-East, couldn't support such a war in the Korean peninsula without having to abandon its' former commitments. Most of the European powers are currently unwilling to take a stand on the DPRK - issue, mainly because a potential crisis wouldn't really concern them directly: thus the only sizable force, the US, would be the one who would have the be involved in it. I doubt, however, that the Pentagon planners (even under Bush) are considering a full-blown military campaign against the north: such a campaign could be very costly in several ways, both militarily and in a humanitarian viewpoint, that I'm willing to bet that it has been ruled out. It just isn't possibly to execute at this time - too many other situations to solve.

Negotiations are always a viable solution: however, with the DRPK's case, negotiations wouldn't be the the final guarantee for a peaceful solution. The DPRK might settle for the "non-aggression treaty" with the US (which they have been proposing) , or then it might just continue its' old ways while having succeeded in humiliating the US. I'm quite confident, that Kim Jong Il himself has some sort of a Napoleon Complex, that in turn reflects upon the DPRK's foreign policy decisions too. This way, the state thinks that in order for it to continue existing as a Neo-Communist state in seclusion, it has to act tough for its' neighbours and even pick up fights with the biggest and baddest boy on the block, the United States of America.

I see North-Korea as a dying nation: its' ways and ideals have been dead since the 1990's fall of Communism and the overall downfall of the Marxist-Leninist ideals. However, I'm sure that Kim Jong Il either knows these facts very well but despite it tries to keep his power base intact - or then he is living in his own little world of dreams much like Hitler did. Either way, the guy is very dangerous and quite possibly even owns nuclear weapons by now.

Sometimes, these sorts of leaders fall due to the efforts of their own people: in this case, however, Kim Jong Il's police state has guaranteed his dominion in the most devious way. The state media and the entire society in the DPRK has been only constructed to serve "the sun of the 21st century", thus making the monitoring of the citizens quite easy to accomplish. The citizens are only miniature cogs in a large machine producing wealth and material to the personal treasury of Kim Jong Il. The manufacturing of weapons and defence material, naturally, is the lifeblood of the DPRK industry.

There's been debate about opening up the possibility of waiting for the North Korean society to fall on its' own: many humanitarians argue, however, that waiting for such a fall to happen, would mean the deaths of thousands, even millions of North Korean civilians mainly due to starvation and totalitarian rule over the years. The civilian population in the DPRK hasn't been given any possibilities to revolt: the army controls the guns and the people are just peasants and simple manpower for the industrial machine. Due to this situation, ways of somehow eliminating Kin Jong Il and/or making a change from the inside is quite hard, even impossible. By this observation, it would seem, that somehow from the DPRK military would have to make the change, and ultimately understand the futility of the entire "Juche" - ideology. All of this is wishful thinking, of course, but in the end it is also all what it comes down to: can the North Korean military, as a miniature society, somehow conspire against their great leader, and make a change from the inside ? I would see the DPRK military to be the only real faction of the North Korean society as capable of somehow removing Kim Jong Il and changing things, since the civilian population is unable to do so due to severe restrictions on personal freedoms.

Perhaps the winds of rebellion might start to blow in the DPRK if the whole trouble with starvation continues. Even if Kim Jong Il keeps his army in top shape, he also must know that keeping it happy and content is also of highest priority: that's also why the military eats the best in the entire society, second only to the highest members of the DPRK political party.

Only time will tell how the DPRK will end up. One thing is certain, however: in order for it to survive, it has to change dramatically - both externally and internally. The North Korean society seems to be at peace for the moment, but in the future as the DPRK alienates itself even more from the western countries and its' own people, its' fall might be as sudden as the end of the Soviet Union during the early 1990's.